Crisis Energética Foros

He added that conventional oil production around the world apparently peaked in 2004.

Rubin found total world oil supplies grew by less than one million barrels a day last year. None of that growth came from outside the OPEC sphere.

That finding was particularly surprising because oil prices have doubled in recent years, making exploration of many new areas economically feasible for the first time.

Rubin looked at 164 upcoming oilfields in his study and found that new oil is, in fact, being discovered and coming on stream. But more than half simply balances declining production from existing fields in the North Sea and Kuwait's Burgan region.

Rubin does expect a net gain in oil production in coming years, but it will be small and getting smaller.

Rubin expects 3.6 million barrels of new oil to come on stream in 2006, but 2.2 million barrels will go to replace declining reserves elsewhere, leaving just 1.4 million barrels of new oil.

He expects 1.5 million barrels of new oil in 2006 and 2007, but less than a million barrels a day in 2008.

Energy companies are finding new oil, but most of it will come from non-conventional sources. Ocean oil rigs are the primary source of new oil today. Alberta's oilsands will rival Saudi oilfields once expansion projects are underway.