El \"Peak\" se extiende

Un nota del Oil Depletion Analysis Centre (ODAC) expone unas nuevas previsiones de Richard Duncan, según las cuales, y contando con unas reservas ("estimated ultimate recovery (EUR)") muy optimistas, el cenit mundial se retrasaría tan sólo tres años, del 2.007 al 2.010. Over Half the World's Oil-Producing Nations Past Peak Production.

Of the top 45 oil-producing nations that accounted for 98.7 percent of world oil production in 2003, a total of 25 (including 7 of the 11 OPEC nations) are now past their peak production, according to Richard Duncan, director of the Institute on Energy & Man. This concurs with an earlier study by UK energy analysts Douglas-Westwood, which found that 52 of the 99 countries that have or can produce significant volumes of oil are already well past their peak. Writing in Oil & Gas Journal (July 19, 2004), Duncan also reports on the results of his latest forecast of global peak oil production. The forecast shows that a large increase in the estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) — the total volume of oil deemed recoverable worldwide, as opposed to the total resource base or 'oil in place' — would delay global peak production by only a few years. An earlier forecast predicted that global peak would occur in 2007 based on an EUR of about two trillion barrels. The new forecast assumed a much larger EUR of 3.3 trillion barrels and found that the effect would be to delay global peak production by three years, or about one day for every billion barrels added to the EUR.